Sunday, November 26, 2006

Predicitng Canon's next DSLR

Now here is an interesting chart by Presscorr.com that places existing Canon DSLR models on a grid of mega pixels versus the size (k/mm2) of a photosite in each crop factor category. By logically extrapolating the two parameters, it forms a linear relationship and this leads it nicely to predicting future DSLR models.

As indicated in the table below, it predicts (in red font) a 10 mega pixel limit for 1.6x crop cameras with possible (blue font) extension to 13 mega pixels (due to competition, etc.), 13 mega pixels for 1.3x models with possible extension to 17 and 21 mega pixels, and 21 mega pixels limit for full frame with possible extension to 26 and 33 mega pixels.

In other words, the 5.7-µm based sensor already exists and may or may not extend into the professional cameras. The next proportional step is 5.1 µm that may or may not happen at all. Whatever models are eventually released, their mega pixel count is predicted in the table based on the information supplied.

The table also implies that the mega pixel increase will not happen too soon. For example, the sensor of the Canon EOS 400D / rebel XTi will not change in the consequent models for at least 3 years. Similarly, Canon EOS 40D, hopefully upcoming in the spring, will stay at around 10 mega pixels also for the following 3 years.

Anyway, the table shows in red font the predictions of Canons new DSLR models for the foreseeable future. They should be on the mega pixel grid defined by the photosite size with no intermediate steps. In addition, the market pressure and technological development in time may push Canon to extend into an even higher mega pixel count listed in the table in blue font.
Lastly, Canon's current entry level offering is EOS 350D. Time has moved it there from the amateur/enthusiast position now held by EOS 400D. The supposedly upcoming EOS 3000D (or whatever name Canon decides upon) will be modeled after and will replace EOS 350D. It will also be the model to compete against Nikon's new and low cost entry model DSLR, the Nikon D40.


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