New DSLR for Nikon

According to financial data ending 31st March 2006, Nikon had another bumper quarter and looks set to increase their profits in the future.
It seems Nikon had huge unit sales in the first half of the year, however in the second half there is a huge decrease in volume. This is where you would expect the Nikon D50 and D70s to contribute significantly to volume.

Author of the Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide and editor of the Nikon DSLR Report, Thom Hogan says:

"As I've noted before, I don't think the November 1 announcement of the D200, which came a month into the second half of their fiscal year, helped Nikon. Basically, it seemed to stall D50 and D70s sales, yet Nikon couldn't deliver many D200's during that third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the D200 sold as many as Nikon could ship, but it took price drops on the D50 and D70 to get them unstalled, and those were a little slow in coming (which is strange considering the dollar devaluation in that time period)."

Interestingly, there is a projected forecast of a huge increase in 2007 and this is most likely due to a release of a new model. Possibly the Nikon D80 or even the D90, whichever it is, it's likely to be the Nikon D70s replacement. Again, Thoms says:

"Look at Nikon's predicted rebound numbers: 550k units in second half 2006 and 850k units in first half 2007. That's not going to be explained by new pricing, and it's not going to be explained by a D2xs release, as some have hinted is imminent. A change of 300k units over 6 months means a 60k/month level DSLR is coming and that would most likely be something like a US$999 8-10mp D80."

As for what's happening in the future of new DSLR, Thom Hogan has his own views and predicts more than 15 new DSLR will be announced before the end of this year. Here's what he says: " My expectation is actually a minimum of 15 new DSLRs announced before the end of the year. For those that want to play the game, there is also the need to identify which DSLRs go away. Some are easy: a D2xs would replace a D2x in the lineup. But would a D80 actually replace a D70s? Note, for example, that Fujifilm is somehow still selling new S2 Pros right now. Some of this is inventory buildup (e.g., a product isn't actually taken off the market until it sells off the shelves, even if it may not be in actual production). Some is intentional generation overlap.
Put another way, it's worth trying to guess what DSLR models will be still be in the maker's catalogs at the end of 2006 versus which are actually in active production. As an example, here's a Nikon guess:

In catalog (selling): D50, D70s, D80, D200, D2h, D2xs (with perhaps some remaining D2x models at a few dealers). In production (actively manufacturing): D50, D80, D200, D2xs.
The difference is important. That's because the numbers the makers report (or estimate going forward) are from the latter category, not the former. They can't be the former, because models already made have usually been reported as sold (to a subsidiary, distributor, or customer). In other words, Nikon expects to sell 1.75m DSLRs in their fiscal 2007 (which has just started). If they aren't making the D70s past this summer, it wouldn't be reflected in that estimate they put out (which is one reason why I said that they must have another consumer DSLR up their sleeves)."





Source